Experts Are Bad at Predicting the Future

“Getting a forecast from an expert may not be your best option, according to an article in The Atlantic, entitled “The Peculiar Blindness of Experts.” The article unpacks a 1984 study that lasted 20 years and examined how well experts could predict the future. The collected data comprised 82,361 probability estimates for future events, made by 284 experts who averaged 12+ years of experience in their respective fields.

The results? The 284 highly-educated experts were bad at making predictions. Really bad. Particularly when making long-term predictions about their own field. In fact, their guesses got worse as their level of education and knowledge increased, as if all of that specialized knowledge allowed them to rationalize any viewpoint they decided to adopt.

However, there was one subgroup of scholars who were able to predict the future more accurately than the rest: the generalists. The scholars who did not specialize in any particular field were more accurate than their specialized counterparts. These generalists tended to be more curious, read an unusual amount from eclectic sources, and ask more questions. They tended to learn more.

It pays to be curious in the oracle business.”

Max at StartEngine

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Let’s get it done
Effort, not talking
Thoughts lead to words then get stuck, inaction

Procrastination is the thief of life
Torpor the poison
But
What if there is no after?
If this is all, we can’t wait
So
Be silent
Be still
Then move

From lazy to lunatic
Whats to lose?
What are you waiting for?
Done

Always leave the office on time

“‘Work–life balance is a concept involving proper prioritisation between “work” (career and ambition) and “lifestyle” (health, pleasure, leisure, family and spiritual development/meditation)’ but what does this really mean?:

1. Work is a never ending process – it can never be completed.
2. Interest of a client is important, so is your family.
3. If you fall in life neither your client or boss will lend you a helping hand, your family and friends will.
4. Life is not only about work, office, and client – don’t let life be meaningless. Cherish your moments with family/friends and experience new adventures with them as well.
5. A person who stays late at the office is not a hardworking person – those who are able to work effectively in the time provided they are hugely successful and enjoy a great work life balance.
6. You did not study hard or struggle in life to become a machine – machines can operate 24 hours a day with the right fuel. You cannot.
7. If your boss forces you to work late – they may be ineffective or have a meaningless life.

So always leave the office on time!”

Adapted from an article by Andrew McGregor (Director at Design and Build Recruitment)

Make it a new year’s resolution to be less active

“… our world of ‘frenetic scheduling, hyperactivity and permanent distraction’ has ‘made an outlaw of silence and indifference’, and that in the social media age, even mere reticence can be subversive. Digital technologies, together with our entrenched long-hours working culture, have encroached on hitherto sacred psychic spaces.

So what’s the remedy? How, realistically, does one opt out? The spiritual needs of the ordinary citizen are not all that different from those of the creative genius; but contemporary culture, with its penchant for pathologizing eccentricity, has all manner of unkind names for practitioners of ‘pure selfhood’.

In a techno-dystopian future of digital superabundance, artificial intelligence and round-the-clock striving, your inner weirdo might just be the one thing keeping you sane.”

Source: Spectator USA

How to grow corporate emotional culture

1. Practice Mindfulness

2. Practice Empathy

3. Sleep

4. Communicate in Person

David Kahl, Fully Founder

(Source: @garycommunity)

“Edit your life frequently and ruthlessly”

Quote from Nathan W. Morris – in full:

“Edit your life frequently and ruthlessly. It’s your masterpiece after all.”

5 Habits of Mindful People

Why do some people seem to handle challenges with grace and ease while other crumble under stress?

Many of the world’s most successful people have some sort of daily mindfulness practice.

Here’s what they do differently:

1. They don’t get hooked by their emotions. Mindful people don’t react to fleeting feelings. They respond in a calm, controlled manner.

2. They pay attention to their repetitive thoughts. Mindful people look for exaggerated, irrational, or unrealistic thoughts that may cause them undue worry.

3. They get curious and ask questions. Mindful people are empathic and expert listeners.

4. They embrace imperfection (in themselves and others). Perfectionism is a happiness killer.

5. They practice preemptive self-care. Mindful people manage their attentional resources. They monitor their internal state to watch for signs of depletion.

Source: Inc.com